Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.003106 0.003399 0.003711 0.004069 0.004469 0.004903 0.005412
2025-12-28 0.002584 0.002991 0.003454 0.004025 0.004712 0.005518 0.006543
2026-01-04 0.002311 0.002778 0.003335 0.004055 0.004968 0.006101 0.007631
2026-01-11 0.002080 0.002573 0.003184 0.004003 0.005088 0.006497 0.008496
2026-01-18 0.001904 0.002415 0.003065 0.003967 0.005207 0.006880 0.009365
2026-01-25 0.001755 0.002273 0.002950 0.003916 0.005288 0.007207 0.010175
2026-02-01 0.001650 0.002178 0.002886 0.003924 0.005443 0.007641 0.011175
2026-02-08 0.001540 0.002068 0.002790 0.003874 0.005504 0.007936 0.011988
2026-02-15 0.001437 0.001959 0.002686 0.003802 0.005521 0.008159 0.012701
2026-02-22 0.001372 0.001899 0.002648 0.003821 0.005675 0.008603 0.013822
2026-03-01 0.001335 0.001876 0.002659 0.003913 0.005947 0.009257 0.015372
2026-03-08 0.001262 0.001795 0.002579 0.003858 0.005975 0.009507 0.016231
2026-03-15 0.001184 0.001705 0.002484 0.003777 0.005965 0.009709 0.017066
2026-03-22 0.001121 0.001636 0.002416 0.003737 0.006023 0.010039 0.018196
2026-03-29 0.001080 0.001596 0.002391 0.003764 0.006197 0.010592 0.019840
2026-04-05 0.001026 0.001533 0.002326 0.003717 0.006233 0.010891 0.021005
2026-04-12 0.000979 0.001479 0.002271 0.003684 0.006291 0.011236 0.022311
2026-04-19 0.000933 0.001424 0.002212 0.003638 0.006318 0.011521 0.023523
2026-04-26 0.000901 0.001389 0.002183 0.003645 0.006447 0.012019 0.025296
2026-05-03 0.000862 0.001340 0.002129 0.003599 0.006468 0.012299 0.026595
2026-05-10 0.000822 0.001288 0.002065 0.003533 0.006443 0.012477 0.027671
2026-05-17 0.000798 0.001263 0.002047 0.003551 0.006589 0.013036 0.029797
2026-05-24 0.000787 0.001258 0.002064 0.003635 0.006876 0.013942 0.032989